| THE TRIPLE FLIP | ||||||
| How waste becomes wealth: every cost becomes income | ||||||
| This sheet models what Wales currently PAYS for the status quo, and shows how | ||||||
| every cost line flips to zero or to positive income when waste is treated as a resource. | ||||||
| All figures are annual (£m/year) at full programme build-out. Blue cells are editable assumptions. | ||||||
| CORE ASSUMPTIONS | ||||||
| Welsh working-age population | 1,500,000 | Source: ONS / Welsh Gov | ||||
| Currently unemployed | 65,000 | Source: Welsh Gov APS ~4.5% rate | ||||
| Welsh GDP / GVA (£m) | £78,000 | Source: ONS Regional GVA 2023 | ||||
| Average annual benefit cost per unemployed person (£) | £12,500 | Est: UC standard + housing element average | ||||
| Average salary in programme (blended, £) | £33,000 | Est: blend of construction, operations, technical | ||||
| Effective tax + NI rate on employment (%) | 30.0% | Combined income tax + employee/employer NI | ||||
| Pension contribution rate (%) | 8.0% | |||||
| Economic multiplier (Type II) | 1.7 | |||||
| Jobs created (direct + multiplier, from Employment sheet) | 1,400 | Total permanent jobs with multiplier from main model | ||||
| FLIP 1: COSTS THAT BECOME ZERO — what Wales currently pays that it wouldn't | ||||||
| COST NOW (£m/yr) | COST AFTER (£m/yr) | SWING (£m/yr) | ||||
| Welsh Water energy bill (purchased from grid) | £46m | £10m | £36m | Residual £10m for grid-dependent sites. Source: Utility Week | ||
| Sludge disposal / management costs | £25m | £0m | £25m | Est: transport, treatment, landspreading currently. Becomes feedstock | ||
| Farm slurry compliance costs (across all suitable farms) | £30m | £0m | £30m | Est: storage, spreading restrictions, NVZ compliance. ~£13k/farm × 2,250 | ||
| Chemical fertiliser imports (replaced by digestate) | £35m | £5m | £30m | Est: Welsh farm fertiliser spend. Digestate replaces ~85%. Source: AHDB / Defra | ||
| Unemployment benefits (for jobs created) | £10m | £0m | £10m | Calculated: jobs created ÷ multiplier × benefit cost (direct jobs only) | ||
| Ofwat fines & penalties (annualised recent trend) | £8m | £0m | £8m | £40m fine in 2024 ÷ 5 years. Better performance = fewer penalties | ||
| Pollution-related health costs (bathing water illness) | £5m | £0m | £5m | Est: NHS Wales costs from sewage-related illness. Conservative | ||
| Environmental monitoring & remediation (NRW) | £4m | £1m | £3m | Est: NRW enforcement, monitoring, incident response for sewage/slurry | ||
| TOTAL FLIP 1: COSTS ELIMINATED (£m/yr) | £147m | |||||
| FLIP 2: ZERO BECOMES INCOME — new revenue that doesn't currently exist | ||||||
| NOW (£m/yr) | NEW INCOME (£m/yr) | SWING (£m/yr) | ||||
| Electricity generation from sludge AAD | £0m | £0m | £0m | From Investment & Returns sheet | ||
| Biomethane grid injection revenue | £0m | £15m | £15m | Est: biomethane sales to grid from gas-to-grid hub sites | ||
| Farm AD energy sales to grid | £0m | £51m | £51m | From Employment & GDP sheet | ||
| Digestate sales as certified fertiliser | £0m | £2m | £2m | From Investment & Returns sheet | ||
| Gate fees from accepting third-party organic waste | £0m | £8m | £8m | Est: food waste, trade effluent gate fees at hub AD plants | ||
| Carbon credits / GGSS / green certificates | £0m | £10m | £10m | Est: Green Gas Support Scheme + voluntary carbon market | ||
| Tourism uplift from cleaner bathing waters | £0m | £50m | £50m | Est: 2% of ~£2.5bn coastal tourism. Conservative — clean Blue Flag beaches | ||
| Tax & NI receipts from new employment | £0m | £8m | £8m | Calculated: direct jobs × salary × tax rate | ||
| Pension fund contributions from new employment | £0m | £2m | £2m | Calculated: direct jobs × salary × pension rate | ||
| TOTAL FLIP 2: NEW INCOME CREATED (£m/yr) | £146m | |||||
| FLIP 3: INCOME BECOMES GROWTH — the multiplier effect | ||||||
| Direct wages circulating in Welsh economy (£m/yr) | £27m | |||||
| Supply chain spend retained in Wales (£m/yr) | £128m | WW capex (60% local) annualised + farm AD (80% local) | ||||
| Local consumer spending from new wages (£m/yr) | £19m | Est: 70% of wages spent locally (rent, food, services) | ||||
| VAT generated from local spending (£m/yr) | £4m | |||||
| Secondary jobs from local spending (est.) | 577 | Each £33k of local spend supports roughly one further job | ||||
| THE TOTAL ANNUAL VALUE SWING | ||||||
| Costs eliminated (Flip 1) | £147m | |||||
| New income created (Flip 2) | £146m | |||||
| TOTAL ANNUAL VALUE SWING (£m/yr) | £294m | |||||
| As % of Welsh GDP | 0.38% | |||||
| WHY THIS IS LIKE DISCOVERING A RESOURCE | ||||||
| Unlike oil, gas, or minerals: | ||||||
| • The feedstock replenishes every day — 3.1m people and 1.1m cattle produce it continuously | ||||||
| • It never depletes — population and livestock are permanent | ||||||
| • Extracting it CLEANS the environment instead of polluting it | ||||||
| • Wales already owns 100% of the resource — no extraction licences, no foreign ownership | ||||||
| • The 'extraction infrastructure' (treatment works, farms) largely exists already | ||||||
| • No subsidy is required — the resource pays for its own processing | ||||||
| Current status: Wales is PAYING to flush this resource into its own seas and rivers. | ||||||
| THE EMPLOYMENT HEADLINE | ||||||
| Currently unemployed in Wales | 65,000 | |||||
| Total jobs created by programme (direct + multiplier) | 1,400 | |||||
| As % of currently unemployed | 2.2% | |||||
| Each employed person shifts from COSTING the state to CONTRIBUTING | ||||||
| Per-person annual swing: benefit saved + tax gained (£) | £22,400 | Benefits no longer paid + tax/NI now received = double swing per person | ||||
| "Wales is sitting on a resource that replenishes every day, cleans the environment when extracted, | ||||||
| creates thousands of permanent jobs, generates energy and fertiliser, needs no subsidy, and is currently | ||||||
| being flushed into the sea at public expense. There is no cost to acting. There is only the cost of not acting." | ||||||
| WASTE AS RESOURCE | |||
| Economic Impact Model for Comprehensive Sludge-to-Energy Investment by Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water | |||
| THE PROPOSITION | |||
| Welsh Water could pay every household 25p a week, create hundreds of | |||
| permanent skilled Welsh jobs, clean up your seas and rivers, and boost | |||
| Welsh GDP — simply by turning sewage into energy. No subsidy required. | |||
| THE PRECEDENT | |||
| Northumbrian Water processes 100% of its sewage sludge through advanced anaerobic digestion. | |||
| It has the lowest combined water and sewerage bills in England, is rated by Ofwat as the most | |||
| efficient bioresources company in the sector, and its investment programme creates 3,000 jobs/year. | |||
| KEY ASSUMPTIONS | |||
| This model is built on the following core assumptions. All are editable on the Assumptions sheet. | |||
| Welsh Water serves | 3,100,000 | people across 838 treatment works | |
| Welsh Water's annual energy bill is approximately | £46m | ||
| Current energy self-generation is approximately | 23.0% | of needs (target was 35% by 2025) | |
| Estimated total sludge production | 67,890 tDS/yr | tonnes dry solids per year | |
| Capital cost per kWe installed | £4,500 | (industry range £2,500–£7,000; mid-point used) | |
| Bond interest rate | 4.5% | (long-duration utility infrastructure bond) | |
| Local supply chain spend target | 60.0% | (matching Northumbrian Water's 60p per £1 commitment) | |
| Economic multiplier (Type II) | 1.7 | (ONS UK construction range 1.5–2.0; sensitivity shown) | |
| Construction jobs per £1m capital spend | 12 | (UK construction industry average) | |
| Plant operational life | 35 years | (standard AD plant lifespan) | |
| KEY OUTPUTS | |||
| Total investment (Welsh Water + farm AD, £m) | £2,290m | £940m | over 10 years (avg £m/yr on Investment sheet) |
| Net annual benefit at full capacity | £17.6m/yr | ||
| Net benefit per household per year | £13 | — that's 25p a week back to each household | |
| 1,360 | 3,814 | per year during build phase (WW + farm + engineering) | |
| 1,400 | 1,326 | for the 35-year life of the plants (all roles, with multiplier) | |
| £509m/yr | £156m/yr | capital programme + ongoing revenue + wages + tourism | |
| 0.65% | 0.20% | ||
| 50% of sludge fully processed within | 4 years | ||
| All 838 works connected to hub network within | 10 years | ||
| THIS WORKBOOK CONTAINS | |||
| 1. Front Page | This page — headline figures and core assumptions | ||
| 2. Executive Summary | All key outputs on one page | ||
| 3. Phased Works Investment | Year-by-year build plan for all 838 treatment works | ||
| 4. Assumptions | All editable inputs with sources — change any number and the model updates | ||
| 5. Investment & Returns | Energy generation potential, revenue, costs, net benefit | ||
| 6. Employment & GDP Impact | Jobs, wages, tax, pension contributions, farm-scale AD | ||
| 7. Northumbrian Comparison | Side-by-side: Northumbrian Water vs Welsh Water current vs proposed | ||
| 8. Sensitivity & GDP | Multiplier range analysis, full value chain trace, GDP % calculation | ||
| IMPORTANT NOTE | |||
| This model illustrates the scale of opportunity using publicly available data and standard industry parameters. | |||
| It is not a detailed feasibility study. All assumptions are transparently stated and editable. A full engineering | |||
| feasibility study commissioned by Welsh Water would refine these figures — but the order of magnitude is sound. | |||
| March 2026 |
| EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY FIGURES | ||
| THE INVESTMENT (all 838 treatment works) | ||
| Total Welsh Water AD capital required (£m) | 940.5 | |
| Tier 1: 15 major hub sites (£m) | 375.0 | |
| Tier 2: 40 regional hubs (£m) | 320.0 | |
| Tier 3: 120 spoke sites (£m) | 96.0 | |
| Tier 4: 663 rural micro works (£m) | 99.5 | |
| Transport fleet & logistics (£m) | 50.0 | |
| Average annual spend over 10-year programme (£m) | 94.0 | |
| Additional: Farm-scale AD investment (£m) | 1,350.0 | |
| COMBINED TOTAL INVESTMENT (£m) | 2,290.5 | |
| THE RETURN (annual, at full build-out) | ||
| Electricity revenue from sludge processing (£m/year) | 0.0 | |
| Avoided energy purchases - savings (£m/year) | 24.8 | |
| Digestate/fertiliser revenue (£m/year) | 2.4 | |
| TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE/SAVINGS (£m/year) | 27.2 | |
| Net annual benefit after costs (£m/year) | 17.6 | |
| Farm energy revenue + fertiliser savings (£m/year) | 67.5 | |
| THE JOBS | ||
| Peak construction jobs (direct, all programmes) | 800 | |
| Peak total jobs with multiplier (construction) | 1,360 | |
| Total permanent direct jobs (all roles) | 824 | |
| Permanent transport/logistics jobs | 80 | |
| Total permanent jobs with multiplier | 1,400 | |
| THE GDP IMPACT | ||
| Total infrastructure investment in Wales (£m) | 1,914.3 | |
| Total annual GDP impact at steady state (£m/yr) | 509.1 | |
| As % of Welsh GDP | 0.65% | |
| THE CUSTOMER BENEFIT | ||
| Net benefit per household per year (£) | £13 | |
| Cleaner bathing waters | Yes | |
| Reduced sewage discharges | Yes | |
| Welsh jobs created | Yes | |
| Dividends leaving Wales | None | |
| THE TIMELINE | ||
| 50% of sludge processed at full AAD | By year 4 | |
| All major and regional hubs operational | By year 6 | |
| 100% of works connected to hub network | By year 10 | |
| NOTE: All figures are estimates based on publicly available data and stated assumptions. | ||
| Assumptions can be adjusted on the Assumptions sheet. All calculations update automatically. | ||
| This model illustrates the scale of opportunity. A detailed feasibility study would refine these figures. |
| WASTE AS RESOURCE: ECONOMIC IMPACT MODEL | |||
| Assumptions & Input Parameters | |||
| Blue cells with yellow background are editable assumptions. All other values are calculated. | Sources | ||
| WELSH WATER BASELINE | |||
| Population served | 3,100,000 | Source: Welsh Water corporate website, 2024 | |
| Number of treatment works | 838 | Source: Welsh Water corporate website | |
| Annual energy bill (£m) | £46 | Source: Utility Week, June 2021 | |
| Current energy self-generation (%) | 23.0% | Source: Welsh Water Journey to Zero, 2020-21 | |
| Annual revenue (£m) | £928 | Source: Moody's credit opinion, Dec 2024 | |
| Current employees | 3,500 | Source: Wikipedia / Welsh Water | |
| SLUDGE & ENERGY PARAMETERS | |||
| Sludge production (g dry solids/person/day) | 60 | Source: Ofwat standard (60g BOD/PE/day) | |
| Estimated total sludge (tonnes dry solids/year) | 67,890 | Calculated: population × sludge rate × 365 days | |
| Biogas yield (m³/tonne dry solids - AAD) | 450 | Source: Industry typical for thermal hydrolysis AAD | |
| Methane content of biogas (%) | 60.0% | Source: Industry standard 55-65% | |
| Energy content of methane (kWh/m³) | 10 | Source: Physics constant | |
| CHP electrical efficiency (%) | 38.0% | Source: Typical CHP engine efficiency | |
| Biomethane grid injection price (p/kWh) | 6.5 | Source: Approximate UK biomethane price 2024-25 | |
| Electricity export price (p/kWh) | 12.0 | Source: Approximate UK wholesale + ROC/RGGO | |
| Digestate fertiliser value (£/tonne dry solids) | £35 | Source: Assured Biosolids - £60m/yr for UK ÷ ~1.7m tDS | |
| CAPITAL INVESTMENT PARAMETERS | |||
| Capital cost per kWe installed (£) | £4,500 | Source: edie.net £2,500-7,000/kWe range, mid-point | |
| Programme duration (years) | 10 | ||
| Plant operational life (years) | 35 | ||
| Bond interest rate (%) | 4.5% | Source: Approximate long-duration utility bond rate | |
| Maintenance cost (% of capex/year) | 1.5% | Source: edie.net 1-2% range | |
| % already invested (current capacity) | 15.0% | Estimate: ~15% based on current 23% self-gen vs potential | |
| EMPLOYMENT & ECONOMIC MULTIPLIERS | |||
| Construction jobs per £1m capital spend | 12 | Source: UK construction industry average | |
| Permanent operational jobs per major AD plant | 15 | Source: Industry estimate for hub-scale AAD | |
| Number of hub AD plants to be built | 20 | Estimate: centralised model like Northumbrian | |
| Local supply chain spend (%) | 60.0% | Source: Northumbrian Water commits 60p in every £1 | |
| Economic multiplier (Type II) | 1.7 | Source: ONS UK construction multiplier approx 1.5-2.0 | |
| Average salary - construction (£) | £35,000 | Source: ONS median construction salary Wales 2024 | |
| Average salary - plant operations (£) | £32,000 | Source: Estimate for skilled plant operators Wales | |
| Income tax + NI rate (effective %) | 30.0% | Estimate: combined employee + employer NI + income tax | |
| Pension contribution rate (%) | 8.0% | Source: UK auto-enrolment employer minimum + employee | |
| FARM-SCALE AD PARAMETERS | |||
| Number of Welsh farms | 24,677 | Source: Welsh Gov June 2020 Survey — 24,677 holdings | |
| Dairy farms (primary AD candidates) | 1,750 | Source: Welsh Gov — ~1,469 dairy + some larger beef. Rounded up | |
| Beef/sheep farms suitable for community AD | 500 | Estimate: larger beef farms that could cluster into community AD schemes | |
| Total farms with AD potential | 2,250 | Source: Farmers Weekly 275kWe for 250-cow unit | |
| Average farm-scale AD capital cost (£) | £1,200,000 | Source: Farmers Weekly / NNFCC — £1.2m for 250-cow dairy unit | |
| Average farm AD electrical output (kWe) | 200 | Source: Conservative — range 100-500kWe depending on herd size | |
| Farm AD uptake rate over 15 years (%) | 50.0% | Assumption: 50% of suitable farms with coordinated support programme | |
| Jobs per farm AD installation (construction) | 8 | Estimate: 6-12 months construction per unit, 8 person-years equivalent | |
| Permanent jobs per 10 farm AD plants (maintenance/operations) | 3 | Estimate: shared technicians serving clusters of farm plants | |
| Fertiliser cost saving per farm (£/year) | £15,000 | Estimate: digestate replaces £10-20k/yr chemical fertiliser per dairy farm | |
| Average farm energy income (£/year per AD plant) | £45,000 | Estimate: 200kWe × 8,000hrs × 85% × £0.12/kWh ≈ £163k revenue minus costs | |
| DEEPER ECONOMIC PARAMETERS | |||
| Welsh GDP / GVA (£m, 2023) | £78,000 | Source: ONS Regional GVA 2023 | |
| Tourism revenue for Welsh coast (£m/year est.) | £2,500 | Source: Visit Wales — coastal tourism estimate | |
| Est. tourism uplift from cleaner bathing waters (%) | 2.0% | Conservative estimate: 2% uplift in coastal tourism from water quality improvement | |
| Digestate supply chain jobs per 100 farms | 5 | Haulage, spreading, testing, compliance — per 100 farm AD plants | |
| Engineering/consultancy jobs for programme | 200 | Estimate: design engineers, project managers, environmental consultants | |
| Monitoring/environmental science jobs | 50 | Water quality monitoring, compliance, NRW interface |
| PHASED INVESTMENT: ALL 838 TREATMENT WORKS | |||||||||||||
| Modelled on Northumbrian Water's hub-and-spoke approach: centralised AAD at major sites, sludge transport from smaller works | |||||||||||||
| WORKS CLASSIFICATION BY SIZE | |||||||||||||
| Category | Number of works | Population served | % of total load | Sludge (tDS/yr) | Treatment approach | Capex per works (£m) | Total capex (£m) | Jobs per works (perm) | Total perm jobs | Annual energy output (GWh) | Annual revenue (£m) | Build phase | Notes |
| Tier 1: Major hubs (>50k PE) | 15 | 1,800,000 | 58.1% | 39,420 | Full AAD + gas-to-grid | 25.0 | 375.0 | 20 | 300 | 40.4 | 0.0 | Years 1-4 | Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham etc. Upgrade existing + new build |
| Tier 2: Regional hubs (10k-50k PE) | 40 | 800,000 | 25.8% | 17,520 | AAD + CHP | 8.0 | 320.0 | 8 | 320 | 18.0 | 0.0 | Years 2-6 | Market towns, larger coastal towns. New AAD builds |
| Tier 3: Spoke sites (2k-10k PE) | 120 | 400,000 | 12.9% | 8,760 | Sludge holding + transport to hub | 0.8 | 96.0 | 0 | [object Object] | Processed at hubs | Included in hub revenue | Years 3-7 | Sludge thickening, holding tanks, tanker loading. Processed at Tier 1/2 hubs |
| Tier 4: Rural micro works (<2k PE) | 663 | 100,000 | 3.2% | 2,190 | Periodic tankering to nearest hub | 0.2 | 99.5 | 0 | [object Object] | Processed at hubs | Included in hub revenue | Years 5-10 | Tanker collection infrastructure. Many already tankered. Minimal new capex |
| Sludge transport fleet & logistics | Tankers, vehicles, depots | 0.0 | 50.0 | 0 | 80 | Estimated: 80 drivers/logistics staff. £50m fleet + depot investment | |||||||
| TOTALS | 838 | 3,100,000 | 100.0% | 67,890 | 940.5 | 700 | 58.4 | 0.0 | |||||
| VERIFICATION | |||||||||||||
| Total works count check | 838 | Should equal 838 | |||||||||||
| Total population check | 3,100,000 | Should equal ~3,100,000 | |||||||||||
| PHASED ANNUAL CAPITAL SPEND (£m) | |||||||||||||
| Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | Total | ||
| Tier 1: Major hubs | 93.8 | 93.8 | 93.8 | 93.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 375.0 | ||
| Tier 2: Regional hubs | 0.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 320.0 | ||
| Tier 3: Spoke infrastructure | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | ||
| Tier 4: Rural micro works | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 99.5 | ||
| Transport fleet & logistics | 0.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | ||
| TOTAL ANNUAL SPEND (£m) | 93.8 | 167.8 | 187.0 | 187.0 | 109.8 | 109.8 | 35.8 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 940.5 | ||
| CONSTRUCTION JOBS BY YEAR (direct) | |||||||||||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | ||||
| Construction jobs (12 per £1m) | 1,125 | 2,013 | 2,243 | 2,243 | 1,317 | 1,317 | 429 | 199 | 199 | 199 | |||
| With economic multiplier (×1.7) | 1,913 | 3,422 | 3,814 | 3,814 | 2,239 | 2,239 | 730 | 338 | 338 | 338 | |||
| CUMULATIVE ENERGY CAPACITY COMING ONLINE | |||||||||||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | ||||
| Tier 1 hubs online (cumulative) | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | |||
| Tier 2 hubs online (cumulative) | 0 | 8 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | |||
| % of total sludge processed at full AAD | 15.5% | 36.1% | 52.9% | 73.5% | 78.7% | 83.9% | 83.9% | 83.9% | 83.9% | 83.9% | |||
| Cumulative energy generated (GWh/yr) | 9.0 | 21.1 | 30.9 | 43.0 | 46.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 | |||
| Cumulative revenue (£m/yr) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| KEY MESSAGES FOR CAMPAIGN | |||||||||||||
| 1. Total investment required to bring all 838 works into full sludge processing: | £940m | ||||||||||||
| 2. This is spread over 10 years, averaging per year: | £94m | ||||||||||||
| 3. Peak year construction jobs (with multiplier): | 3,814 | ||||||||||||
| 4. Permanent operational jobs created: | 700 | ||||||||||||
| 5. Annual energy revenue at full build-out: | £0m | ||||||||||||
| 6. 50% of sludge processed within: | ~4 years | ||||||||||||
| All assumptions are editable on the Assumptions sheet. The tier classification is an estimate based on typical UK water industry size distributions. | |||||||||||||
| Actual works-level data is published by Welsh Water in their bioresources market information and could refine this model significantly. |
| INVESTMENT PROGRAMME & ENERGY RETURNS | |||||||||||
| ENERGY GENERATION POTENTIAL (at full build-out) | |||||||||||
| Total biogas production (million m³/year) | 30.6 | ||||||||||
| Methane production (million m³/year) | 18.3 | ||||||||||
| Total energy content (GWh/year) | 0.2 | ||||||||||
| Electrical generation potential (GWh/year) | 0.1 | ||||||||||
| Installed electrical capacity needed (MWe) | 0.0 | Assuming 90% availability | |||||||||
| CAPITAL INVESTMENT REQUIRED | |||||||||||
| New capacity needed (MWe) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Total capital investment (£m) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Annual investment over programme (£m/year) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| ANNUAL REVENUE AT FULL CAPACITY | |||||||||||
| Electricity revenue (£m/year) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Avoided energy purchase savings (£m/year) | 24.8 | Estimate: 70% of currently purchased energy could be offset | |||||||||
| Digestate/fertiliser revenue (£m/year) | 2.4 | ||||||||||
| TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE/SAVINGS (£m/year) | 27.2 | ||||||||||
| ANNUAL COSTS AT FULL CAPACITY | |||||||||||
| Bond interest payments (£m/year) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Maintenance costs (£m/year) | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Operational staff costs (£m/year) | 9.6 | ||||||||||
| TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS (£m/year) | 9.6 | ||||||||||
| NET ANNUAL BENEFIT (£m/year) | 17.6 | ||||||||||
| Net benefit per household per year (£) | £13 | Assuming average 2.3 persons per household |
| EMPLOYMENT & GDP IMPACT FOR WALES | ||||
| CONSTRUCTION PHASE EMPLOYMENT (during 10-year build) | ||||
| Annual capital spend in Wales (£m) | 0.0 | |||
| Direct construction jobs per year | 0 | |||
| Total jobs supported (with multiplier) | 0 | |||
| Annual construction wage bill (£m) | 0.0 | |||
| Tax & NI revenue from construction (£m/year) | 0.0 | |||
| PERMANENT OPERATIONAL EMPLOYMENT | ||||
| Direct permanent plant jobs | 300 | |||
| Total permanent jobs (with multiplier) | 510 | |||
| Annual permanent wage bill (£m) | 9.6 | |||
| Annual tax & NI from operations (£m/year) | 2.9 | |||
| Annual pension contributions (£m/year) | 0.8 | |||
| FARM-SCALE AD EMPLOYMENT | ||||
| Total farms with AD potential | 2,250 | |||
| Farms adopting AD (over 15 years) | 1,125 | |||
| Total farm AD capital investment (£m) | 1,350.0 | |||
| Annual farm AD investment (£m/year over 15 yrs) | 90.0 | |||
| Farm AD construction jobs (total person-years) | 9,000 | |||
| Farm AD construction jobs per year (over 15 yrs) | 600 | |||
| Farm AD permanent maintenance/operations jobs | 338 | 85% capacity factor for farm AD | ||
| Farm energy revenue (£m/year at full build) | 50.6 | |||
| Farm fertiliser cost savings (£m/year) | 16.9 | |||
| Direct Welsh Water capital spend in Wales (£m over programme) | 0.0 | |||
| TOTAL PROGRAMME — ALL EMPLOYMENT | 1,350.0 | |||
| Welsh Water construction jobs/year | 0 | |||
| Farm AD construction jobs/year | 600 | |||
| Engineering & consultancy jobs | 200 | Source: ONS Regional GVA, Wales 2023 | ||
| TOTAL DIRECT CONSTRUCTION PHASE JOBS/YEAR | 800 | Spread over 15 years for combined programme | ||
| WITH MULTIPLIER (×1.7) | 1,360 | |||
| WIDER FISCAL BENEFITS (annual, at steady state) | ||||
| Welsh Water plant operation jobs | 300 | |||
| Welsh Water transport/logistics jobs | 80 | |||
| Farm AD maintenance/operations jobs | 338 | Estimate: £12k/year benefit saving per job filled | ||
| Digestate supply chain jobs | 56 | |||
| Environmental monitoring jobs | 50 | |||
| TOTAL DIRECT PERMANENT JOBS | 824 | |||
| WITH MULTIPLIER (×1.7) | 1,400 | |||
| COMPREHENSIVE GDP IMPACT | ||||
| Welsh Water capital in Wales (£m) | 564.3 | |||
| Farm AD capital (£m) | 1,350.0 | |||
| Total direct capital in Welsh economy (£m) | 1,914.3 | |||
| Annual ongoing revenue retained in Wales (£m/yr) | 94.7 | WW energy + farm energy + farm fertiliser savings | ||
| Tourism uplift from cleaner waters (£m/yr) | 50.0 | |||
| Permanent annual wages in Welsh economy (£m/yr) | 27.2 | Blended average salary ~£33k across all permanent roles | ||
| GDP impact of capital (with multiplier, £m) | 3,254.3 | |||
| GDP impact annualised (over 15yr programme, £m/yr) | 217.0 | |||
| Ongoing annual GDP contribution (revenue + wages, £m/yr) | 292.2 | |||
| TOTAL ANNUAL GDP IMPACT AT STEADY STATE (£m/yr) | 509.1 | |||
| AS % OF WELSH GDP | 0.65% |
| COMPARISON: NORTHUMBRIAN WATER vs WELSH WATER | |||
| Metric | Northumbrian Water | Welsh Water (current) | Welsh Water (proposed) |
| Sludge processed by AAD (%) | 100% | ~15-20% | 100% |
| Energy self-sufficiency | Approaching 100% at major works | ~23% | 70%+ potential |
| Biomethane to grid | Yes - 5,000 homes equivalent | 1 site (Five Fords) | Multiple hub sites |
| Ofwat bioresources efficiency | Frontier company (+32%) | Below average | Target: frontier |
| Combined bills ranking (England) | Lowest | N/A (Wales) | Target: lowest possible |
| Ownership model | Private (KKR etc.) | Not-for-profit (Glas Cymru) | Not-for-profit (Glas Cymru) |
| Dividends paid | Yes - to shareholders | None | None |
| Investment stays local | 60p per £1 local commitment | Not stated | Target: 60p+ per £1 |
| Net zero target | 2027 | 2040 | Accelerate to 2030-35 |
| Jobs from current programme | 3,000/year | Not stated at this scale | See Employment sheet |
| SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS & GDP IMPACT | ||||
| GDP IMPACT — HEADLINE FIGURES | ||||
| Welsh GDP (GVA, approx 2023) | £78,000m | Source: ONS Regional GVA, Wales | ||
| Total Welsh Water infrastructure investment (£m) | 940.5 | |||
| Total farm-scale AD investment (£m) | 1,350.0 | |||
| Combined investment (£m) | 2,290.5 | |||
| Local spend proportion (%) | 60.0% | |||
| Investment retained in Wales (£m) | 1,374.3 | |||
| MULTIPLIER SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | ||||
| Conservative (1.5) | Central (1.7) | Rural Wales (2.0) | Notes | |
| GDP impact of total investment (£m) | 2,061.4 | 2,336.3 | 2,748.5 | Total economic activity generated |
| GDP impact annualised over 15 years (£m/yr) | 137.4 | 155.8 | 183.2 | Combined WW + farm programme over 15 years |
| AS % OF WELSH GDP (annualised) | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.23% | |
| Peak year construction jobs (direct) | 2,243 | 2,243 | 2,243 | Direct jobs same; multiplier affects total |
| Peak year total jobs supported | 3,365 | 3,814 | 4,487 | |
| Permanent operational jobs (direct) | 780 | 780 | 780 | |
| Permanent total jobs supported | 1,170 | 1,326 | 1,560 | |
| VALUE CHAIN — WHERE THE MONEY GOES | ||||
| ROUND 1: Direct investment | Construction, equipment, installation | |||
| Capital spend retained in Wales (£m) | 1,374.3 | |||
| ROUND 2: Supply chain (indirect) | Concrete, steel, pipe, electrical, engineering consultants | |||
| Estimated Welsh supply chain value (£m) | 481.0 | Est: 35% of local spend goes to Welsh suppliers of suppliers | ||
| ROUND 3: Wage spend (induced) | Workers spend locally: shops, housing, services | |||
| Total construction wages over programme (£m) | 0.0 | |||
| Permanent annual wage bill (£m/year) | 9.6 | |||
| ROUND 4: Fiscal return | Tax, NI, reduced benefits, business rates, VAT | |||
| Annual tax & NI from all jobs (£m/year) | 50.0 | |||
| Annual pension contributions (£m/year) | 0.8 | |||
| ROUND 5: Secondary economic effects | These are real but harder to quantify precisely | |||
| Lower customer bills → more disposable income | £13 | |||
| Farm supplementary income (£m/year at full build) | 337.5 | |||
| Tourism benefit from cleaner beaches | Not quantified | Significant but requires specific coastal tourism study | ||
| Fisheries/shellfish improvement | Not quantified | |||
| ROUND 6: Avoided costs | ||||
| Ofwat fines avoided (recent: £40m penalty) | Not quantified | Welsh Water fined £40m in 2024. Future fines likely without investment | ||
| Environmental remediation avoided | Not quantified | |||
| Public health costs avoided | Not quantified | |||
| THE HEADLINE | ||||
| Boost to Welsh GDP (annualised, central estimate) | £156m | |||
| As percentage of Welsh GDP | 0.20% | |||
| Net benefit per household per year | £13 | |||
| Or to put it another way: | ||||
| "Welsh Water could pay every household 25p a week, create hundreds of permanent Welsh jobs, and clean up your swimming water — just by turning waste into energy. No subsidy. No dividends leaving Wales. Why isn't this happening?" |